Take a good look at California, at its rolling power outages leaving millions without electricity, at the recent layoffs there, at the businesses closing down or leaving the state, and then fasten your seat belts. Just about anywhere you live in this great, sprawling land of ours, that could be what will happen in your community somewhere down the road if the federal government does not institute a wise energy policy. In comments by the president and a speech by Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham, the Bush administration warned as much this week, pointing to the conditions that have brought about this threat to the American economy and suggesting in broad outline what some of the long-term solutions might be. Unfortunately, there are no short-term solutions. The central need is to increase supply to match demand, and, because of past neglect, that requires massive projects that cannot be completed quickly. The situation is ugly. Over the next 20 years, according to Abrahams speech, the demand for oil is projected to increase by 33 percent. By 2020, he said, Americans will consume 62 percent more natural gas than we do today. He said estimates are that electricity demand will go up by 45 percent. To meet the need, he said, the country will have to add a minimum of 1,300 new power plants, about 65 a year. Most of the new plants now being constructed will use natural gas, requiring thousands of miles of new pipelines and distribution lines. For oil even if OPECs latest production reductions are lifted new refineries are crucial. The number of refineries built in the past quarter of a century is zero yes, zero and since 1980, Abraham said, the number of existing refineries has been cut in half. As the secretary also said, the cost of doing nothing or too little is to court recession, for virtually everything else in the economy depends to some degree or another on energy. For just a hint of the danger, consider Abrahams citing of the fact that, from 1999 to 2000, increases in fuel prices cost the economy $115 billion, about 1 percent of the gross domestic product. Imagine how shortages would cause that cost to be multiplied many times, and while you are at it, imagine 1970s-style lines at gas pumps. The governments role is to facilitate increased supplies largely by undoing some of what it has done for instance, by letting up on various restrictions that have prevented drilling for gas on federal land, building needed pipelines and moving ahead with power plants and refineries. As Abraham said, new technology makes all of this far less an environmental risk than some would have you think. Still more steps are required to stave off a crisis, of course, and Congress must consider all of them honestly instead of taking refuge in demagoguery about everything being the fault of big business.