Unexpected warm and dry weather this fall, combined with low humidity, is putting Kentucky in the early stages of a drought situation, according to state climatologist Stuart Foster. 

“Certainly through the first half of November we’re not anticipating any significant relief in terms of precipitation,” said Foster, director of the Kentucky Climate Center at Western Kentucky University. 

Unusually dry and warm weather this September and October follows the wettest July and August on record with an average of 13.47 inches statewide, according to a WKU news release. For western Kentucky, precipitation averaged 17 inches during those two months. 

That wet weather gave way in September and was as though someone flipped a switch, Foster said. 

Data from the Midwestern Regional Climate Center for September showed a precipitation average of 2.17 inches, and much of Kentucky got less than an inch of rain in October based on the Kentucky Mesonet at WKU. 

When asked what could be causing that, Foster credited the domination of a high pressure ridge over the eastern United States. Air within a ridge is compressed and warms as it descends, which limits cloud formation and creates a sunny sky. Foster also said jet stream wind has remained northward instead of dropping down to bring cooler weather and more precipitation. 

“That simply hasn’t really happened yet,” he said. 

As for what brought so much rain during the summer, Foster said a strong flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico helped contribute to storms and similar conditions across the Ohio River Valley. 

Bill Caldwell, an environmental scientist with the Kentucky Division of Water, would welcome rain to relieve fires burning throughout Kentucky, especially in the southeast. 

“It’s exacerbated really by the dryness,” he said. 

Gov. Matt Bevin declared a statewide emergency effective Thursday in light of the fires, according to a release from the Governor’s Office. The Kentucky Division of Forestry has reported 38 fires that have burned 3,800 acres in Kentucky. Harlan County reported five fires and has requested the state’s help with air support and fire suppressant, the release said. 

There have been no reports of injuries, evacuations or house fires because of the fires, however. 

“My primary concern is safety,” Bevin said in the release. “By declaring a state emergency we are providing emergency resources to proactively respond to local needs. I thank all of the officials working hard to keep people safe. As dry conditions remain throughout Kentucky, we urge all citizens to use extreme caution during outdoor activities and refrain from outdoor burning.” 

In the meantime, Caldwell said he’s helping coordinate the response efforts to the dry conditions.

“We’re focusing right now on water supplies that might be in areas that we need to keep close track of,” he said. The current conditions don’t warrant panic, he added. 

Foster agreed. 

“One reason for that is entering the cool season of the year with the fall and winter ahead,” he said. “Even if it is dry it’s not likely to create widespread impacts across Kentucky.” 

— Follow education reporter Aaron Mudd on Twitter @BGDN_edbeat or visit bgdailynews.com.