Tax plan imperfect but would spur growth
Published 1:00 am Saturday, October 7, 2017
Republicans recently rolled out the basics of their long-awaited tax reform initiative. There is a lot to like about them if one’s goal is to put more money in the pockets of Americans and boost the economy.
Key elements include doubling the standard deduction for individuals and couples to $12,000 and $24,000, respectively, and reducing the seven current individual tax brackets to three. House Speaker Paul Ryan told financial network CNBC that the increase in the standard deduction effectively reduces taxes on people now in the 10 percent bracket to zero. The three new brackets of 12, 25 and 35 percent will lower what the remainder of Americans pay.
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Ryan says an ancillary benefit of the simplified brackets is that it should allow nine of 10 Americans to file their annual federal income taxes on a one-page, postcard-type form. That would be well received if Congress can actually pull it off. We’ll see.
The plan’s goal to cut corporate taxes from 35 percent to 20 percent comes as no surprise. There has long been bipartisan support for that type of move amid a continuing flight of American companies to low-tax jurisdictions like Ireland. The U.S. rate is the highest in the developed world, making it difficult for U.S.-based manufacturers to compete in global markets.
But in terms of boosting the domestic economy, the more important feature of the plan is a reduction of taxes on “pass-through” companies to 25 percent. Pass-throughs encompass most small businesses and partnerships. They are presently taxed at individual rates, which frequently puts them in high brackets. The bulk of job growth traditionally comes from small businesses. Giving them more money for reinvestment and expansion would have obvious benefits.
The plan is not without its downside, however. From a national perspective the biggest is the potential impact on the federal deficit. Estimates are that even with faster economic growth the plan could add $3 trillion to $7 trillion to the deficit over the next decade. Those numbers are concerning, particularly at the high end.
We have to say, however, that the harping by congressional Democrats on this subject reeks of hypocrisy. Democratic Minority Leader Chuck Schumer recently took to the Senate floor to preen, “We will not go along with a tax scheme to lavish the wealthy with lower rates or even more that explodes the debt and the deficit.”
Seriously? These are the folks who just doubled the deficit, larding on $10 trillion during the eight-year rein of President Barack Obama. But now they are fiscal hawks, demanding that any tax code revision be “deficit-neutral,” i.e., not a real tax cut?
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Democrats’ real fear is that if taxes are reduced, they will have that much less to spend on their social agenda should they reclaim Congress in the years ahead. They also know that once cut, raising taxes again is politically very treacherous.
The bad news in the plan for residents of Kentucky and Illinois is that the federal deduction for state and local taxes goes away, along with most other deductions. Kentucky and Illinois are high-tax states; Kentucky particularly relative to average incomes. Illinois just raised taxes due to a fiscal crisis. Kentucky will be hard-pressed to cut them for the same reason.
These realities will unfortunately blunt the effectiveness of tax relief in our region. But that is a situation of our own making. We think the plan is likely to pass with inevitable modifications. It may even pass by the end of the year because of the pressure on congressional Republicans to deliver a win. While the deficit aspect worries us, we hope in the end it does improve the economy and fortunes of the working class.