Downgrade shows growing financial pressure on state

Published 9:00 am Monday, August 7, 2017

Credit rating agency Moody’s downgraded Kentucky’s debt several days ago to Aa3. Front and center to the move is Kentucky’s $37 billion shortfall in its state employee pension funds.

This comes as little surprise to those who have followed this issue. Moody’s said Kentucky does not collect enough tax revenue to address the pension problem. But the ratings firm didn’t stop there. It said Kentucky has serious problems beyond just the pension gap.

Specifically, Moody’s says Kentucky has some of the highest “fixed costs” of any state. Not only is the amount Kentucky already pays out to retirees crippling; the debt service on past spending sprees now consumes 7.4 percent of total revenues. That’s seventh-highest in the nation and well above the 4.1 percent national average.

Republicans don’t escape blame for this problem. They are complicit thanks to former Republican Senate President David Williams, a RINO who ultimately was blessed with a judgeship by Democratic then-Gov. Steve Beshear.

We particularly recall an episode during the Fletcher administration when Williams decided he would out-Democrat the Democrats during the bad old days of patronage projects. The Democrat-controlled House sent over a budget larded with projects the state could ill-afford. But not to be outdone, Williams upped the spending spree to historic levels.

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This record spending was fueled by debt. It substantially maxed out the state’s credit card. This was neither conservative nor Republican as we define those words, which is why we have referred to Williams as a RINO ever since. The problem was exacerbated later in Williams’ tenure when he and Democrats like Beshear used even more debt to balance budgets and paper over massive underfunding of the pension system.

Moody’s also raises concerns about a weakening tax revenue picture in Kentucky despite a state economy that has been growing. Growth in the state’s receipts fell from 5.3 percent two years ago to 1.3 percent in the most recent one. Virtually all of the growth came from increased personal income tax collections. That was largely offset last year by continuing declines in coal severance tax revenue as Obama-era regulations take their toll on the industry.

This picture gives ammunition to Republican Gov. Matt Bevin, who has strongly hinted he wants to expand the state’s revenue base when he calls the Legislature into special session later this month. That likewise would not be a very Republican thing to do. And it has Republican lawmakers with their newfound legislative supermajorities understandably wary.

Job growth in Kentucky already is lagging the national average, and more taxes would likely worsen that. But the state’s financial situation has lawmakers in a tough spot.

This is one of our pet peeves about the politics of recent years. Leaders at the state and national level knew full well the problems they were creating a decade ago, but also knew that it would be someone else’s problem when time came to face the consequences.

In Washington this has produced the gridlock we see today. In Illinois it has produced a total meltdown because there is no financial room left to maneuver. We hope Kentucky can avoid such a destiny. But it won’t be easy. Suffice it to say politicians of the recent past served us poorly.