U.S. Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., performed well in The Federalist Today Presidential Straw Poll released this week on The Federalist website, but not as well as he has done in other straw polls.

Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, won the straw poll with 26 percent of the vote, followed by Paul with 22 percent and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker with 16 percent, The Federalist said in a post.

But it is unclear if Paul’s performance in this and other polls has any real significance when it comes to the real-life race for president, which he still has not yet officially entered.

Paul is no stranger to success in presidential straw polls. He won straw polls at the Conservative Political Action Conference in 2013 and 2014, according to The Washington Post.

In the 2014 poll, the Bowling Green Republican bested his 2013 performance by winning 31 percent of the vote compared to 25 percent in 2013. In the 2014 CPAC poll, Cruz came in second place with 11 percent of the vote.

But the poll has not always been a great predictor of election success. GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney did win in 2012, but Paul’s father and former Texas representative Ron Paul won in 2010 and 2011, according to The Washington Post.

The Federalist favors a “conservative-libertarian” candidate rising to the top in the coming Republican presidential nomination process but acknowledges challenges to that idea.

“Any such insurgent’s campaign will be undone by a press that favors Democrats, a bare-knuckles Republican establishment that favors milque-toast candidates, and a bewildered flyover electorate conditioned to favor one flavor-of-the-month insurgent presidential candidate after another, to the detriment of any effective insurgent candidacy,” the blog post said.

Some media outlets suggest that foreign relations may be a weak spot for Paul if he seeks his party’s presidential nomination.

In its New Year’s resolutions and suggestions for potential Republican presidential candidates, The Hill suggests that Paul resolve to “convince Republicans you can be trusted on foreign policy.”

Paul has to overcome a perception from more hawkish Republicans that he is an isolationist because of his libertarian-leaning views on some issues. 

Paul defended himself against the accusation of being an isolationist in a 2014 opinion piece for Time.

In it, he wrote that he supports destruction of the Islamic State in Iraq and Greater Syria, or ISIS. 

He wrote that he is predisposed to less intervention and he supports intervention when the country’s vital interests are threatened.

“I still see war as the last resort,” Paul wrote. “But I agree with (Ronald) Reagan’s idea that no country should mistake U.S. reluctance for war for a lack of resolve.” 

— Follow government beat writer Katie Brandenburg on Twitter at twitter.com/BGDNgovtbeat or visit bgdailynews.com.