Oscar picture starts to clear as big night arrives

Published 9:23 pm Tuesday, March 7, 2023

The Oscar season comes to a close with Sunday’s Academy Awards ceremony – the culmination of an awards season that began with a lot of mystery but has come into focus much more in recent weeks.

In the five major categories there has been one sure thing all season, but the recent Screen Actors Guild, Producers Guild and Directors Guild have helped solidify two more categories – with two still remaining up for grabs.

Here are my predictions for who I think will win and who should win on Sunday. As always please remember if I’m wrong, don’t blame me for messing up your Oscar pool.

Best Picture

What began with “The Fabelmans” as the front runner has quickly turned into overwhelming support for A24’s wildly original “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”

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“Everything” has picked up the SAG, PGA and DGA so it appears to be well on its way to a win on Oscar night. If there is an upset British Academy Film Awards “All Quiet on the Western Front” could be the one in position after garnering nine nominations, with “Top Gun: Maverick” maybe an outside shot just because of what it meant to movie theaters this year.

My vote would go to “Tár,” my pick for best movie of the year, but I am totally fine with “Everything” which was in my top five.

Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should win: Tár

Best Actor

This is one of the awards that is still up in the air as we approach the big night.

My favorite male performance – Colin Farrell in “Banshees of the Inisherin” – was one of the possible winners and still could be a darkhorse, but I think Farrell’s chances are slim at best.

That leaves it between Brendan Fraser in “The Whale” and Austin Butler in “Elvis.” Fraser is the comeback story Hollywood loves and it was a physical transformation. Butler became Elvis Presley, the very best thing about a movie I completely hated otherwise.

As good of a story as Fraser is, I’m gonna go with Butler due to two precursors. “Elvis” is the favorite to win makeup and hair styling nomination, a category that usually synced up with best actor and actress winners (including Jessica Chastain for “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” last year). There is also the stat where Best Actor usually lines up with a film nominated for best picture. Butler checks that box too, while Fraser doesn’t.

It could go either way but I’m gonna take Butler.

Will win: Austin Butler

Should win: Colin Farrell

Best Actress

What once looked like a lock for Cate Blanchett’s third win as the demanding title character in “Tár,” has now shifted to Michelle Yeoh for “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”

The voting winner came after Yeoh’s magnificent acceptance speech after winning the SAG award in the same category. I think that will still be in the voters’ minds and Yeoh will beat out a very deserving Blanchett.

Will win: Michelle Yeoh

Should win: Cate Blanchett

Best Supporting Actor

Ke Huy Quan has won every single award for his performance in “Everything Everywhere All at Once” and has become the toast of Hollywood, going from child actor in “Goonies” and “Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom” to this after a long on screen absence.

Quan is the surest lock of the night, although I’d love to see Brendan Gleeson win for “Banshees of the Inisherin” – the perfect foil to Farrell’s character in the film.

Will win: Ke Huy Qyan

Should win: Brendan Gleeson

Best Supporting Actress

Here is the true toss-up of the night.

Will it be Golden Globe winner Angela Bassett from “Wakanda Forever” who is long overdue for an Oscar? What about another Hollywood favorite Jamie Lee Curtis who won the SAG a few weeks ago? Maybe BAFTA winner Kerry Condon rides that momentum and wins for “Banshees of the Inisherin.”

If any of these three names are announced on Sunday I wouldn’t be surprised. I’ll lean with Condon in the slight upset mainly because it’s the one I want to see the most. She managed to steal the movie from the two outstanding leads, plus the Academy has to give “Banshees” something right?

Will win: Kerry Condon

Should win: Kerry Condon