Widespread shortages and production snags are driving prices higher for many everyday items as an uneven economic reopening leaves Americans facing the unfamiliar risk of inflation.

Used cars, medical care, appliances, energy, food and cigarettes all have seen significant price increases in recent months. Gas prices were higher Monday – and could soon reach their highest retail level since 2014 – after a cyber attack forced the closure of the nation’s largest fuel pipeline.

Most economists expect prices for many goods and services will show continued gains Wednesday when the U.S. Labor Department releases its next report.

The Federal Reserve insists today’s rising prices – up 2.6% over the past 12 months – will not blossom into anything like the double-digit inflationary spiral of the 1970s. Some economists, including Lawrence Summers, a former Treasury secretary, however, warn that President Joe Biden’s free spending could ignite inflation that would outstrip wage gains and leave consumers struggling to make ends meet.

The Fed insists a temporary period of higher prices represents just the latest twist in the pandemic. Fueled by government stimulus checks and pent-up consumer demand, the U.S. economy is galloping ahead. Yet many industries have not adjusted to the pandemic’s reshaping of demand, meaning some factories cannot satisfy all potential customers.

“What we’re seeing right now is an economy struggling to recalibrate,” said Lindsey Piegza, chief economist for Stifel Financial in Chicago.

Even as the Fed reassures investors, expectations of future inflation, which over time can contribute to sustained price increases, reached their highest mark since 2013. A market gauge called the U.S. Treasury 10-year break-even rate reached 2.5% Friday, up sharply from 1.99% at the beginning of the year.

The fast-growing economy is battling labor and raw material shortages. Freight costs are soaring. And executives are scrambling to maintain profit margins by passing on the higher costs to customers or by developing less expensive production methods.

Price gains are expected to peak in the second quarter before easing later this year as production bottlenecks are cleared, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

But Friday’s disappointing jobs report – and the computer attack this weekend that idled Colonial Pipeline’s main East Coast fuel artery – underscored the daunting uncertainties surrounding the economy’s revival.

“What worries me the most is we don’t have any historical examples of how long bottlenecks persist or the damage they can do,” said Frances Donald, global chief economist for Manulife Investment Management. “This is one of the most complicated periods in modern economics.”

To date, the increase in inflation remains modest. Comparing current prices to one year ago also overstates what’s actually in the economy. During the pandemic’s first months, many prices – including for hotel rooms, airplane tickets and men’s suits – collapsed. So year-over-year comparisons exaggerate the degree of change. Such distortions will become less significant over the remainder of this year.

The recent uptick in prices comes after decades of generally quiescent inflation. On an annual basis, the consumer price index has not been above 6% since the early 1990s.

Since the end of the financial crisis, in fact, the Fed often has worried about deflation – a self-perpetuating cycle of falling prices that erodes demand and employment. In that 12-year period, the consumer price index rose by an annual 1.6%, below the Fed’s 2% price stability target.

Even now, prices are not rising in a uniform way.

In a $21 trillion economy, the price of some goods is always rising while others are becoming less expensive. But the past year’s price mosaic is unusual.

In some sectors, such as semiconductors, the problem is too much demand, outpacing available supplies. In others, like restaurants or airlines, there is plenty of supply but not enough demand.

Energy prices are up more than 13% in the past 12 months as resurgent demand from the economic recovery collided with weather-related disruptions to the petrochemical industry in Texas. Meanwhile, the cost of women’s dresses fell by more than 11% as people opted for casual attire while working from home.

Apples and oranges are up more than 7% over the past year. Canned fruits and vegetables also have risen by more than the overall average.

“The structure of the economy has changed. We recognize the new economic reality and market challenges we face, specifically the inflationary pressure we are facing on all fronts which is forcing us to increase our prices,” said Mohamed Abu-Ghazaleh, CEO of Fresh Del Monte Produce.

The pandemic has rearranged the market for new and used cars from the factory gate to the showroom floor. A semiconductor shortage is hobbling auto plants even as consumers spooked by public transit risks rush to buy personal vehicles. With new cars in short supply, more consumers are turning instead to used models.

That’s driven used car prices up 37% over the past year, according to Manheim Auctions, the world’s largest automobile auction company.

“I never thought we’d see a market like this in a million years,” said Warfa Isse, general sales manager for Koons Tysons Toyota. “Some common used cars are selling at more than their original sticker price when they were new.”

During the first quarter, General Motors’ average transaction price in North America was up 9% year-over-year, including a 10% gain for full-size pickups and 20% for sport utility vehicles, said Paul Jacobson, the automaker’s chief financial officer.

Other price increases can be traced to industry miscalculations. When the pandemic began, many sawmills shut down, anticipating a housing slump that never materialized.

Instead, the work-from-home era is pushing people to buy new homes. As a result, lumber futures on Friday hit $1,686 – more than six times the April 2020 low of $259.80.

“There’s plenty of raw material. The constraint really seems to be on the sawmills,” said Ryan Marshall, chief executive officer of Pulte Group.

The home builder said it expects its costs to rise by 6% to 8% this year, which it intends to pass on to consumers in the form of higher home prices.

Production of hardwoods used in cabinets, furniture and flooring remains almost 15% below pre-pandemic levels, according to Mark Schweizer, vice president for marketing and strategy with Northwest Hardwoods in Tacoma, Wash.

The industry is struggling to hire enough workers to fill its logging crew and sawmills needs while facing soaring transportation costs, he said.

“Demand is screaming hot and everybody is trying to get more wood through,” he said.

Lumber is a good example of why Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is so confident that any inflation will be only temporary. Once more sawmills return to their normal level of activity, lumber prices should drop.

Northwest expects prices to keep increasing through the end of June before plateauing in the third quarter and softening toward the end of the year.

The idiosyncratic nature of the economy’s price outlook complicates the Fed’s job and explains why Powell is waiting to act. Raising interest rates – the Fed’s traditional anti-inflation tool – would chill all sectors not just those afflicted with rising prices. In the Fed’s view, enduring a temporary bout of higher prices in some industries is the price of a full economic recovery.

Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said last week that newly vaccinated Americans were ramping up their spending in a “freedom-induced demand spurt” that producers will eventually accommodate.

The Fed’s confidence that supply chain bottlenecks and labor shortages will pass is endorsed by most economists. But the pandemic’s aftermath is unlike any previous period, meaning all forecasts are clouded by uncertainty.