We have finally arrived at nomination day, heading down the stretch of the longest Oscar season yet.

There should be plenty of surprises when the nominations are announced Monday morning, but then again the surprise could be lack of surprises. With the awards precursors all over the map picking the final nominees won’t be easy, but I might as well take a shot.

Here is who I expected to be nominated in the six major categories:

Best Picture

Judas and the Black Messiah

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Mank

Minari

Nomadland

One Night in Miami

Promising Young Woman

The Sound of Metal

The Trial of the Chicago 7

The Father and News of the World could sneak in, but recent history suggests only eight or nine films not the 10 max allowed (that changes next year). If either sneak in, One Night in Miami and Sound of Metal might be in the most trouble.

Best Director

Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

David Fincher, Mank

Aaron Sorkin, Trial of the Chicago 7

Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

All five received DGA nominations and while history suggests one will get snubbed, I’ll stick with these. Regina King, Darius Marder or even Paul Greengrass could sneak in.

Best Actor

Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Anthony Hopkins, The Father

Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round

Steven Yeun, Minari

I have this sneaky suspicion that Mikkelson will be one of the big surprises Monday morning. That meant a tough elimination and with Mank’s momentum waning I opted to leave out Gary Oldham. Tahir Rahim could also surprise.

Best Actress

Andra Day, United States vs. Billie Holiday

Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman

Frances McDormand, Nomadland

Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

Four appear to be locks, leaving one slot. I’ll give it to Day, who won at the Golden Globes, but Amy Adams, Sophia Loren or Rosamund Pike could sneak in.

Best Supporting Actor

Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods

Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

Jared Leto, The Little Things

Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami

Again four seem set, with Leto the shaky one. He already has a Globe and SAG nod so I will reluctantly stick with him over Paul Raci or Bill Murray or the one I am rooting for the most Bo Burnham.

Best Supporting Actress

Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

Olivia Colman, The Father

Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian

Youn Yuh-Jung, Minari

If you get all five right here congrats ahead of time. This is not only wide open with no clear frontrunner, but even the five that will make it seem shaky. Amanda Seyfried, Ellen Burstyn, Dominique Fishback or Helena Zengal all had a shot.