Oscars won’t feature many surprises

Published 7:30 am Thursday, February 6, 2020

One of the quickest awards seasons ever will come to a close Sunday with the Academy Awards.

The show was moved up two weeks from its normal slot, with hopes that a shorter season would lead to more drama.

That has not been the case, with the four acting awards likely locked up and even best picture featuring a heavy favorite.

That may make for less drama Sunday night, but it should make the quest for winning your Oscar pool a little bit easier.

Here is how I see the top five categories shaping up, with who I think should win as well. Remember, these picks are for entertainment purposes only (so if you don’t win your pool then don’t blame me).

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BEST PICTURE

This might actually provide a bit of drama, with several films still hoping to have a shot.

There is Screen Actors Guild best ensemble winner “Parasite,” although it’s likely to follow the same route as “Roma” last year – winning best international film. “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” had early momentum, but its chances have faded in recent weeks, while “Jojo Rabbit” seems to be gaining some steam – with a few people actually predicting “Rabbit” for the upset.

I’ll follow the numbers, though, and select favorite “1917.” Winning the Producer’s Guild and Director’s Guild, as well as the Golden Globe and the British Academy of Film and Television Arts, has made it a huge favorite. That’s too much momentum to think the Sam Mendes epic is vulnerable.

Mendes is likely headed to a best director award, with “1917” exactly the kind of sweeping epic the academy likes to reward. “Parasite” was my pick for the best film of 2019, but “1917 “ is certainly a worthy choice if it wins.

Should win: “Parasite”

Will win: “1917”

BEST ACTOR

It’s been a strong year for male roles with a trio of great performances – Eddie Murphy in “Dolemite is My Name,” Taron Egerton in “Rocketman” and Adam Sandler in “Uncut Gems” – all missing the cut.

As strong as the category is, however, one performance is head and shoulders above the others – Joaquin Phoenix in “Joker.” I had issues with the film and was stunned to see it garner the most Oscar nominations, but what Phoenix did while portraying a man slowly descending into madness was spectacular. It’s the kind of tour de force performance that we don’t see very often.

Phoenix, who has a long resume of strong work, is about to win his first Oscar. He certainly deserves it.

Should win: Phoenix

Will win: Phoenix

BEST ACTRESS

This category really comes down to two amazing transformations – Renee Zellweger as Judy Garland in “Judy” and Charlize Theron as Megyn Kelly in “Bombshell.”

Theron is great, likely the winner in any other year, and “Bombshell” is a better film overall, but what Zellweger does embodying Garland is absolutely chilling. She becomes Garland, especially during the stage sequences.

It’s the kind of old-school Hollywood performance the academy loves, and it’s the best performance this year by any actress.

Should win: Zellweger

Will win: Zellweger

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

This category is absolutely loaded. You’ve got Tom Hanks as Mr. Rogers, Anthony Hopkins in “The Two Popes” and a pair of powerhouse performances from Al Pacino and Joe Pesci in “The Irishman.”

But the winner will be Brad Pitt for “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.” He exudes coolness in a way that seems effortless but is really hard to pull off.

Pitt’s work is a throwback performance in a movie that is a love letter to old-school Hollywood. It’s hard to believe he hasn’t already won an acting Oscar, but that will change Sunday.

Should win: Pitt

Will win: Pitt

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Laura Dern has steamrolled through the awards season for her work as a tough-talking lawyer in “A Marriage Story.”

Dern will likely continue her string of wins Sunday, although she might be the most vulnerable in the acting categories. If Dern is upset, Scarlett Johansson could swoop in and win for her performance in “Jojo Rabbit.”

A Johansson win would bode well for a “Jojo” upset for best picture. It also doesn’t hurt that it’s the performance that should win, with Johansson providing the heart and soul needed to pull off the tricky material.

As much as I am rooting for Johansson, I think Dern has too much momentum to be stopped now.

Should win: Johansson

Will win: Dern

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To get all of Micheal Compton’s Oscar picks, visit his blog at bgdailynews.com/blogs/reel_to_reel or follow him on Twitter @mcompton 428. Email him at mcompton @bgdailynews.com.