Hilltoppers set to face one of C-USA’s toughest nonconference schedules
Published 12:20 am Wednesday, October 3, 2018
Conference USA coaches aren’t yet sure how the league’s new late-season scheduling format will play out.
“I really don’t have an answer for that yet,” Western Kentucky coach Rick Stansbury said. “You ask me at the end of the season how it works out and I can probably get a better feel for it.”
The new format divides teams into tiers (1-5, 6-10, 11-14) based on standings after the first 14 C-USA games. Teams play a round-robin schedule within their tiers over their final four games leading up to the conference tournament.
Conference USA adopted the system in hopes of boosting its best teams’ NCAA Tournament resumes.
The idea is that teams in the at-large hunt can pick up wins against quality opponents late in the season. C-USA hasn’t sent a team other than its league tournament champ to the NCAA since 2012.
“Is that enough to help that second team get in?” Stansbury said. “Here’s all I know – that second team better play the kind of schedule you’ve got to play and better win some games to have that chance.
“If not, you better make sure you go win that (conference) tournament.”
Stansbury has arranged WKU’s nonconference schedule with the intent of picking up quality victories that could help come March.
The Hilltoppers will face at least five nonconference teams (Washington, Arkansas, Belmont, Saint Mary’s and Wisconsin) that finished in the top 100 of last year’s Ken Pomeroy adjusted efficiency margin rankings.
WKU could add to that list if it plays West Virginia and Wake Forest in the second and third rounds of November’s Myrtle Beach Invitational.
Thirteen of Conference USA’s 14 schools – all but North Texas – have announced their 2018-19 schedules.
Only defending regular-season league champ Middle Tennessee (Belmont, Virginia, Vanderbilt, Murray State, Rhode Island) is scheduled to face as many 2017-18 KenPom top-100 squads as WKU.
On the other end of the spectrum, Tennessee-Martin is WKU’s only scheduled opponent that finished 250th or worse in last year’s KenPom rankings.
The Hilltoppers also will not play any non-Division I opponents in the regular season. By comparison, Florida International, Southern Mississippi and Texas-San Antonio are all scheduled to play four regular-season games against non-D-I schools.
Among C-USA schools, WKU and Old Dominion have the lowest combined number of scheduled games (one each) against either sub-250 D-I programs or non-D-I teams.
The Hilltoppers will play five true road games in the nonconference season. That’s tied with three other Conference USA schools for third-most behind Marshall and Rice (six each).
WKU could’ve opened its season next month against a non-D-I team or against a lower-tier D-I squad. The Tops instead elected for a Nov. 6 road game at Washington to start the campaign.
“We had a choice to open up a home game against somebody and sit down right here and win by 25 or 30 that first night,” Stansbury said. “Everybody leaves out of here smiling and happy. But does that make us the best we can be? No.
“So what I did, I did it for a reason. I chose to go to the University of Washington, a team that basically has everybody back after winning (21) games last year. They’re going to be picked first or second in the Pac-12 and are going to be really good. I chose to go out there and put our team in that box right off the bat to make us better.”
Stansbury ran down some of the other challenges waiting on WKU’s 2018-19 slate.
December will be particularly grueling with games Dec. 8 at Arkansas, Dec. 19 at Belmont, Dec. 22 vs. Saint Mary’s and Dec. 29 vs. Wisconsin.
All those teams finished 83rd or better in last year’s KenPom rankings, though Arkansas was the only one of the four that made the NCAA Tournament.
Saint Mary’s and Wisconsin come to E.A. Diddle Arena as return games of home-and-home deals. The Wisconsin series also included a single football game in Madison, Wis.
“We want everybody walking through those doors, no matter who we play, believing we’ve got a chance no matter who it is,” Stansbury said.
“But we also want them walking through that door knowing, ‘Hey boy, this is a heck of a team. We’ve got to play to beat this team.’ We want that.”
WKU will face three teams from the Missouri Valley Conference – Valparaiso (Nov. 15), Indiana State (Nov. 24) and Missouri State (Dec. 5). The ISU and MSU contests are both true road games, while Valpo will be the Hilltoppers’ Myrtle Beach opener.
West Virginia, which made last year’s Sweet 16, likely awaits WKU in the second round at Myrtle Beach if it beats Valparaiso. Central Florida, Saint Joseph’s and Wake Forest are among the Toppers’ potential third-round opponents in that event.
“I want those challenges,” Stansbury said. “I’m not worried about putting a schedule together in nonconference where you go 12-1 or 11-2. That’s easy to do. I’m not concerned about that.
“I’m concerned with putting a schedule together that makes our team better, that challenges us all, that’s going to make us better come February or March. We have that.”
Guaranteed games against 2017-18 KenPom top 100 teams
5 – Middle Tennessee, WKU
4 – Charlotte, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, UTEP
3 – Marshall, Rice, UTSA
2 – Old Dominion, UAB
1 – FIU, Florida Atlantic
Guaranteed games against 2018 NCAA Tournament teams
4 – Middle Tennessee
3 – Charlotte, Louisiana Tech, Rice, UTEP
2 – Marshall, Southern Miss, UAB, UTSA
1 – FIU, Florida Atlantic, Old Dominion, WKU
True road games
6 – Marshall, Rice
5 – Florida Atlantic, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, WKU
4 – FIU, Middle Tennessee, UTEP
3 – Charlotte, Old Dominion
2 – UAB, UTSA
Non-Division I games
4 – FIU, Southern Miss, UTSA
3 – Florida Atlantic, UAB
2 – Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, Rice, UTEP
0 – Charlotte, Marshall, Old Dominion, WKU
Guaranteed games against sub-250 2017-18 KenPom teams
4 – Charlotte, FIU, Louisiana Tech, Rice
3 – Marshall, UAB, UTEP
2 – Florida Atlantic, UTSA
1 – Old Dominion, Southern Miss, WKU
0 – Middle Tennessee
Note: North Texas hasn’t posted its 2018-19 nonconference schedule.{&end}