Some worry about consequences of less immigration

Published 6:00 am Sunday, July 2, 2017

The latest estimates available from the U.S. Census Bureau show about 14.3 percent of Bowling Green’s population is foreign-born. The raw numbers in 2015 were 53,000 native-born city residents and 8,587 foreign-born residents.

But a slowdown by the Trump administration in accepting international refugees, a contested travel ban and rising anti-immigrant rhetoric have raised concerns among some people that the U.S. could see decreased immigration. Agriculture industry experts are warning of the potential for increased food prices this year as shortages of workers – a large percentage of whom are immigrants – are being reported nationally.

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Ron Crouch, the former state demographer and now a private consultant, said with an aging native population, Kentucky will soon be losing population if not for people coming in from foreign lands.

According to the nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute, the foreign-born population constituted just 0.9 percent of Kentucky’s population in 1990, but 3.6 percent by 2015, with that percentage growing rapidly. From 2000 to 2015, the U.S.-born population in the state grew 7.7 percent; the foreign-born population during that same time frame grew 96 percent.

“The only way Kentucky will grow in the future is through people moving in from other states or countries. All of our growth is due to foreign-born migration,” Crouch said. “A stable population is OK,” he said, but once population starts dwindling, the smaller tax base and insufficient workforce can cripple a state or region.

“Areas doing the best economically are the ones that have the largest numbers of immigrants,” he said.

A study released last year by the National Academy of Sciences also concluded that “Immigration has an overall positive impact on long-run economic growth in the U.S.”

Crouch said the decrease in migration is a serious concern “especially for a university town like Bowling Green and Warren County because of the large number of foreign-born students at WKU.”

At Western Kentucky University, International Enrollment Management Executive Director Stephanie Sieggreen agrees that, as of late, “we have everything going against us.”

Universities in recent years have shifted from an emphasis on study-abroad opportunities to seeking international students to study here.

“Now there’s a greater demand for (students) coming to the U.S., which is still one of the premier countries to get a higher education,” Sieggreen said.

WKU was at the forefront of recruiting foreign students, which has helped with recruiting new students by word of mouth from the alumni abroad.

International student enrollment reached a peak at WKU in 2014 with 1,402 international students and dropped to 1,377 in 2015 and 1,168 last year.

The figures were boosted in 2014 and 2015 with some short-term and non-degree-seeking students who came to WKU, university officials said.

“It’s a global world we live in,” Sieggreen said of the benefits of a diverse student body.

One of the challenges of keeping that level of diversity is that other institutions are now working hard to attract the foreign students.

“It’s becoming more competitive,” she said.

The travel ban has WKU, which traditionally draws many of its international students from the Middle East, looking at other parts of the world for students.

“We’re investing in other regions,” Sieggreen said. “We’re trying to determine future trends.”

The travel ban is a cause of “serious concern” on many levels, Crouch said.

The Supreme Court last week partially reinstated and agreed to review President Donald Trump’s travel ban from six predominantly Muslim countries after it was struck down by several federal courts. The administration argues that the ban is needed to protect the nation from potential terror attacks. The case is expected to be heard by the Supreme Court in October.

Meanwhile, the pace of resettling international refugees in the country – and locally – has slowed dramatically.

The U.S. State Department’s Refugee Processing Center reported 7,371 refugees were admitted to the United States in December 2016, the month before Trump took office. In March, just 2,070 were admitted.

In Kentucky, refugee agencies are also reporting a slowdown in the number of refugees they are processing. Maria Koerner, assistant director for the Kentucky Office for Refugees, said last month that for the fiscal year that ends Sept. 30, 2,431 refugees were expected statewide, but the actual number so far has been about half that with most of the fiscal year over.

Albert Mbanfu, executive director of the Bowling Green International Center of Kentucky, previously told the Daily News the local center laid off four or five employees because “we didn’t have any work for them,” he said.

The center was slated to resettle 440 refugees, including 40 Syrians, in Bowling Green this year. No Syrians have been resettled following a decision to halt Syrian resettlements by the Trump administration, and so far has resettled only 282 refugees total, according to Chris Kantosky, the center’s chief operating officer.

Even if the center does eventually process 375 refugees this year, which is the latest estimate, that would be down significantly from the previous year, when 497 refugees were resettled here.

Koerner said the Trump administration will this fall set the number of refugees the country will accept next year, with indications that “they’re thinking 50,000, which … is the lowest number a president has ever set since the Refugee Act was signed in 1980,” she said previously. “The need worldwide is the greatest it’s ever been … .”

The anticipated number is down from 110,000 that then-President Barack Obama had set for the next fiscal year, she said.

When asked for comment on the potential impact on Bowling Green of the reduced number of refugees and other immigrants to the city, Bowling Green Mayor Bruce Wilkerson referred to a previous statement he issued saying he did not believe in addressing international, national or state issues.

Others did not shy away from discussing the potential impact on Bowling Green.

“I think the true test of the culture is seen in September at the International Festival when thousands of people come together,” Kantosky said of the annual event at Circus Square Park.

Losing the diversity from immigration “would affect cross-cultural relationships,” he said. “It would impact that greatly.”

Two local foreign-born business owners (see related story) said they are already seeing an impact from the new challenges to immigration.

Victor Puga of Premiere Roofing, who was born in Mexico, said as news of immigration crackdowns and anti-immigrant rhetoric spread, many in the local Hispanic community are afraid, even if they have done nothing illegal.

“Anti-Muslim (feelings) are everywhere,” said grocery store and restaurant owner Ghazwan Nahedh, an Iraqi who resettled here in 2012 after working on humanitarian aid efforts and serving as a translator for the U.S. Army during the Iraq War.

“We have become a divided country,” he said. “I hate to see it happening.”

Nahedh said he also hears from refugees in Bowling Green who are being separated from family members because of the travel ban.

“It’s sad to hear this happening in the United States,” he said, adding “people will not come here if they don’t feel safe.”

“The problem may not be illegal immigration,” Crouch said, “it’s that we’ve made coming to this country harder.”

Nahedh adds that despite the divisive rhetoric, he has been received warmly in his adopted home.

“The people of Bowling Green have been very nice,” he said. “I’m proud of being from here.”