Modern-day disasters can cripple communities, commerce and the fabric of society. It pays to be prepared.

Local emergency planners reason that the greatest possible dangers will come from beneath and above – sinkholes, sinkhole-related flooding, tornadoes and extreme weather.

That’s according to a draft version of the latest hazard mitigation plan being finalized by the Barren River Area Development District.

Those planners also conclude that while the region probably won’t experience a terrorist attack carried out by an international group such as the Islamic State – “because of a lack of politically important targets” – communities are “potentially at risk of local threats to smaller targets, such as city and county buildings and schools.”

Information about the potential cost of terrorism and steps planners might take to mitigate circumstances don’t appear in the plan.

“Terrorism was evaluated; however, for security reasons the BRADD has chosen not to publish any of the information,” the plan noted.

But what if a massive EF-5 tornado leveled the majority of Warren County, the region’s population center? Replacing all the school buildings in Warren County might cost an estimated $705 million, according to calculations made in the BRADD plan.

In order to function, assets of a civilized society must be protected.

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security National Infrastructure Protection Plan recently noted that there are 16 sectors in a local society that must be protected: chemical, communications, dams, emergency services, banking and finance, government facilities, information technology, commercial facilities, critical manufacturing, defense industrial base, energy, food and agriculture, health and public health, nuclear reactors, materials and waste and water.

Without those sectors, commerce and our way of life can come to an abrupt standstill.

Restoring them after a disaster is critical.

How the region could cope with disaster

Hazard mitigation is an exercise in forethought and implementation as planners look at what could happen and how officials could cope with the aftermath, a local emergency official said.

“You don’t have the financial resources to protect everyone from everything,” said Ronnie Pearson, Warren County’s director of emergency management. “The plan lays out a path for the future.”

Emergency preparedness in the region’s largest county actually predates BRADD’s involvement, Pearson said. “It goes back to the mid-1990s.”

“One of the projects we did was the Mount Lebanon Road Bridge,” he said. The elevated bridge structure built above the floodplain was in response to a drowning in the early 1980s and it helped residents avoid an 11-mile detour when the swollen creek swamped the previous bridge.

BRADD’s hazard mitigation plan was approved by the state and the Federal Emergency Management Agency. It now awaits all the jurisdictions to approve it, said Susan Orlowski, BRADD’s public administration specialist and regional planner.

“They will be eligible to use the plan for hazardous mitigation grants,” Orlowski said.

The planners in recent years have obtained funds to equip Metcalfe County residents with weather radios and to help other counties purchase generators.

Tornado warning sirens have also been installed and the need for more are contained in the plan’s section of possible projects.

“We do the general planning so that jurisdictions can become aware of gaps in their preparedness,” Orlowski said. “There are risk assessments for natural and technological hazards.”

Orlowski said costing out what is needed to prepare for a possible disaster allows communities to bounce back faster.

BRADD received the contract to do the 2016 hazard mitigation plan in April 2016 and a six-month planning process followed. The Kentucky Emergency Management Department reviewed the plan from October 2016 to January. The Federal Emergency Management Agency then signed off on the plan in April.

Having the plan in place will allow communities and counties to pursue mitigation grants. Some grants only become available if the president declares a disaster has occurred, she said.

Between 2008 and 2015, the BRADD region has received $7,130,273 in disaster response money. In that same time, the state of Kentucky has received $332,332,415 in similar funds.

Orlowski said the region benefits from a larger slice of the disaster funds because it is prepared.

The 10-county, 25-city plan documents the process used for “a systematic evaluation of the nature and extent of vulnerability to the effects of natural hazards typically present in a state or community,” a definition within the document noted.

Warren, Allen, Metcalfe and Monroe counties and the cities of Morgantown, Russellville and Tompkinsville have approved the plan so far, Orlowski said.

Sinkhole collapse given greater importance in plan

The 2016 hazard mitigation plan ratchets up local consideration of sinkhole-related disasters and pays homage to the region’s pervasive karst topography. That’s different from the 2011 plan.

That topography affects how flooding waters act after heavy rains. Karst topography also undermines physical structures. The lesson of the 2014 sinkhole opening inside the National Corvette Museum Skydome wasn’t lost on the planners.

“The collapse at the Corvette Museum has sparked regional concern and interest in the hazard of sinkhole collapse, moving from an annoyance to potentially devastating disaster,” the BRADD mitigation plan noted.

Karst is a terrain generally underlain by limestone or dolomite, in which the topography is chiefly formed by the dissolving of rock, creating sinkholes, underground and aboveground springs and underground caverns.

The BRADD service area comprises a 4,000-square-mile stretch of the Pennyroyal region of the Mississippi Plateau and 40 percent of the region is dominated by karst topography.

Nick Crawford of the Western Kentucky University Department of Geology noted in a 1989 report that sinkhole flooding is aggravated by increased rates of runoff caused by land-use changes – “especially from impervious roofed or paved areas” – decreased storage due to sinkhole grading and filling, and the clogging of sinkhole drains by debris and silt.

Tornadoes expected to be more frequent

Tornadoes have increased in recent years because of climate change, the plan noted.

Increases in “connective available potential energy,” or CAPE, mean the twisters now come in clusters.

There are 16 tornado safe rooms in Warren County, including small, 10-foot by 10-foot reinforced rooms at nine of the volunteer fire departments to protect staff. Large tornado shelters, two each, are at Michael Buchanon Park, Ephram White Park and Basil Griffin Park.

From 1957 to 2015, BRADD has counted 119 tornado events resulting in 16 dead, 180 injured and $64.3 million in property damage.

“Our region is successful in getting tornado safe room projects approved,” Orlowski said.

Extreme weather can also rock a community.

Winter storms, for example, have resulted in an estimated $25.5 million in losses in the region and the Jan. 26-Feb. 13, 2009, statewide winter storm that socked Kentucky resulted in $307 million in damage, 36 fatalities and saw one and a half inches of ice blanket the commonwealth.

The plan notes dam failures, droughts, earthquakes, extreme temperatures, floods, hazardous materials spill, landslides, pandemics, severe storms, sinkholes, terrorism, tornadoes, winter storms, electricity loss and restoration of communications as key events for which to prepare.

Pearson said restoration of communications is important in the smartphone age.

“We have purchased portable cell towers on wheels,” Pearson said. “The cell towers can be run by generators powered by gasoline or LP gas. Now the question becomes, ‘Where can you find the fuel?’ ”

Matching resources with need is an important part of the disaster planning process.

The skill level the region brings to that task is high, Orlowski said.

“We have incredibly dedicated and knowledgeable emergency management directors in the region,” Orlowski said. Over 100 participants were part of the recent planning process, she said.

FEMA estimates that on the average, $1 spent by FEMA on hazard mitigation saves the nation about $4 in future benefits.

Pearson said no community in the region is 100 percent prepared for a disaster.

“No community is. But all our first responders are well trained to respond to a disaster. I have confidence that we will be able to weather the storm,” Pearson said.

– To download the BRADD 2016 draft hazard mitigation plan, visit www.bradd.org/index.php/bradd-hazard-mitigation-plan.html.