“It’s extremely important. Since I have been here – and for decades before I got here – WKU has been an institution that prided itself on success. We will not settle for anything less. If we make a I-A move, it will not be just to say we’re playing on the highest level – we would do it to be a success.”

– Western Kentucky athletic director Wood Selig in September 2006, before the Hilltopper program joined Division I-A, on why he expected WKU to be competitive immediately in the

highest level of NCAA play.

“We all need to be realistic about the process and the time that’s going to be involved to compete at the highest level successfully in football. Our standards have not dropped, our expectations have not been lowered and we will continue to hold football accountable in the highest level academically, athletically and with regard to character within the program. You cannot microwave this transition. It’s not a 20- or 30-second transition, it’s a transition that’s going to take years and that’s just a fact.”

– Selig on Wednesday, after the Hilltoppers finished 2-10 in their first season as a I-A independent, explaining why he recommended WKU coach David Elson’s contract be

extended through 2016.

I can’t tell you how many times over the past five days I’ve heard someone crack a joke about WKU’s big athletic announcement on Wednesday – that Elson, the coach who in 2008 engineered the worst football season Hilltopper history, will apparently be granted job security through the next seven seasons.

A basketball team loses by double figures? “Give that coach a contract extension,” comes the snarky response. A placekicker misses a field goal? Contract extension. Spill coffee all over the keyboard? Contract extension.

You get the point.

Considering it came less than a month after WKU wrapped up a 2-10 campaign, Selig’s recommendation to the WKU Board of Regents that Elson retain the keys to Houchens-Smith Stadium through 2016 struck some as crazy, others as just plain odd. Elson’s current contract runs through 2012, which seems like plenty of time for the young coach to prove his mettle in the Football Bowl Subdivision.

So why now? Why reward a guy who’s yet to prove anything against FBS competition, whose year-by-year records have gradually ticked downward – from 9-4 in 2003 to 6-5 in 2006 to 2-10 in 2008?

Well, I’m not so sure it’s a reward. To me, this feels like an investment in the potential of a 37-year-old coach who has just six years of head-coaching experience – the most recent of which was almost literally a no-win situation, a half-season fundraising effort designed to forsake victories for a quick influx of cash.

Meanwhile, the contract-extension recommendation doubles as a public admission that this whole Division I-A thing is going to be rather difficult.

Check out the quotes above. The confidence Selig projected three years ago as he campaigned for the I-A jump hasn’t disappeared, but it has undoubtedly been tempered. The old I-A guard traditionally frowns on party crashers, and there’s no way to predict how long WKU will be paying its dues.

If recent history is any indication, the Hilltoppers could be paying dues for a long time. So it could be many years before Elson’s true legacy becomes clear.

Take, for example, WKU’s own attempt at spinning the 2008 season. The sports information department’s initial release on the Elson extension included a list: the first-year records for 19 football programs that have joined Division I-A since 1987. At a glance, the numbers look good for WKU. The first-year win-loss average for the 19 schools – including WKU’s 2008 season – is 4-7.

The message? Early struggles are common and are hardly cause for concern. That’s true. But by attaching the list to a release about extending Elson’s contract, the insinuation seems to be that brighter days are just around the corner.

That’s not necessarily true.

The schools on WKU’s list – Akron, Arkansas State, Buffalo, Boise State, Central Florida, Connecticut, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Idaho, Louisiana-Monroe, Louisiana Tech, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Nevada, North Texas, South Florida, Troy, UAB and WKU – have combined to play 224 seasons as Division I-A programs since 1987.

Just 77, or 34 percent, of those seasons ended in winning records. The overall win-loss record for those 19 programs as I-A schools is 1,176-1,437-7, about 45 percent winning pace.

Sure, these teams have produced a number of bowl appearances and conference championships over the last 22 seasons. Schools such as Boise State, Marshall and even the Sun Belt Conference’s Troy have become standard-bearers for non-Bowl Championship Series programs. In fact, Boise State, at 117-44 since joining Division I-A in 1996, is easily the class of WKU’s list. (Selig has mentioned the Broncos, in particular, as the model WKU hopes to follow.)

But Boise State is an exception. Akron is 103-143-3 in Division I-A since 1987, with just seven winning seasons in the last 22. Buffalo is 25-92 since 1999; the Bulls posted their first winning record of 8-6 and made their first bowl appearance this past season. Idaho is 50-100 since 1996, with three winning seasons out of 13.

The Sun Belt has especially struggled. Arkansas State, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Louisiana-Monroe, Middle Tennessee, North Texas and Troy are a combined 316-530-1 in 77 total seasons since ASU went I-A in 1992. Only 13 of those seasons produced winning records, five of them courtesy of Troy in the last eight years alone.

WKU has poured money and resources into football into recent years. The university has built facilities and laid a foundation that gives it a recruiting and perception advantage over several teams on its list, especially many Sun Belt schools.

But that is no promise of prosperity. WKU very well might compete for, or even win, a Sun Belt championship by 2012, the cutoff point of Elson’s current contract. The Hilltoppers very well might finish with a winning record or two in that time frame.

Those are far from impossible results. But to expect that degree of success so quickly is another matter altogether, and the push to extend Elson’s contract is an acknowledgment that many programs making the I-A jump face uphill battles for many years. There’s something to be said for emphasizing consistency – it helps with recruiting, it helps build momentum, it helps a program find its footing in unfamiliar territory.

Besides, coaching changes are hardly a recipe for immediate glory, especially when the chance is unnecessary or too early. Regime changes are starts from scratch, are growing pains, are years of recruiting work to match the new system.

So Elson’s contract extension, while oddly timed, is no joke. Elson isn’t tarnishing WKU’s football history – as far as Division I-A is concerned, there is no history. Elson was thrust into this upward move, and he deserves time to show what he can, or can’t, do at the highest level of competition, with the full power of WKU’s financial commitment behind him.

After all, I-A football is a fraternity that, at least according to modern history, doesn’t exactly welcome newcomers with open arms. No one knows if, or when, the Hilltoppers will pass muster, regardless of who’s patrolling the sideline.

– Daniel Pike is sports editor for the Daily News. He may be reached by calling 783-3271 or by e-mailing dpike@bgdailynews.com.