Oct. 5 or 10 — Light frost

IRVINGTON — Its not going out on a limb to say Dick Frymires weather-forecasting methods can seem a little shady. With a grin on his face and a gleam in his eye, Frymire says he has used trees to predict rain and snow and sunshine with considerable accuracy for more than three decades. Generally speaking, Ill hit around the 70 percent range, Frymire said. Right here in Irvington, I might miss, but Ill hit St. Louis or Cincinnati. I admit that. But as a general thing, Ive been fairly accurate, or I wouldnt still be doing it, because this is my 34th year to do this. Aided by an immense maple tree that his father planted in 1926, Frymire recently issued his 34th annual fall and winter forecast for the Ohio Valley and northern Mississippi Valley. He said folks living in the region can expect the seasons first killing frost on Oct. 13 or 18, the first snow flurries on Nov. 12 and the coldest day of winter to be Jan. 23, when the mercury will dip to 11 degrees below zero. Two temperature gauges, their sensors driven deep into the maple trees core, extend from the trunk about four feet from the ground. Two more are planted in the earth at the trees base. A large thermometer also hangs on the trunk, but its only for show and not integral to Frymires unique method of making predictions. Thats mainly for the TV crews because they want something to zoom in on, explained Frymire, a bespectacled man with thick, gray hair who, at 73, is the same age as the tree. Hes so secretive about his forecasting formula that no one else, including his wife or two children, knows exactly how he does it. He says a written explanation is kept in a safe-deposit box that will be opened only when Frymire dies — and then only by his son, J.L., who hasnt decided whether to carry on the tradition. Frymire didnt invent treeology, as he calls what he does. It was in the lobby of a New York City hotel during the 1960s that an older man who had been a friend for several years let him in on the secret. I thought to myself, why, you crazy old fool, if you think Im going to do that, I know somethings wrong with you, Frymire recalled. But I respected the man. Coming home on the airplane, I got to thinking, well, it wont hurt. So the first winter I just jotted down the dates of the snowfalls and the accumulations and daggone if I didnt hit 92 percent. The forecasting formula involves taking the daily temperature of the tree and the ground near it and closely examining the spots on the leaves, the limb structure and any mold on the bark. Theres nothing particularly special about his maple, and almost any other tree could be used, he said. Once the information is collected, Frymire said he can accurately predict the weather anywhere in the world, if he has the locations longitude, latitude and altitude. Frymire, a former schoolteacher and municipal judge who served as Kentuckys railroad commissioner from 1975-79, has self-published five books on folk medicine, household hints and gardening. He is also host of a weekly syndicated radio talk show on folklore and home remedies that airs on 200 stations. Frymires office is cluttered with old photographs, various mementos and letters from devotees. He has photos taken during his television appearances with Johnny Carson and David Letterman. On one wall hangs a framed copy of a proclamation from the General Assembly dated April 10, 1992. In it, Frymire was designated the states official folklorist and treeologist. Hes done this for so long that Ive just gotten used to it, said Blanche Frymire, his wife of 51 years.